Diane Murphy
Sugar futures traders are watching a supply story rather than a price spike this season, as global output is projected to climb to 189.3 million metric tons in the 2025 to 2026 crop year, an increase of 8.4 million metric tons from the prior season.
Brazil Leads a Broad Production Increase
Brazil remains the world's dominant cane grower, and favorable weather is pushing its harvest toward 44.7 million metric tons, a gain of roughly four million metric tons and close to the country's record output. Strong sugar prices have nudged some Brazilian farmers to plant cane instead of grain this season, and demand for cane based ethanol continues to shape how much of the crop gets diverted to fuel versus sweetener. With consumption expected to stay flat and supply rising, Brazil looks positioned to keep expanding exports.
India is not far off Brazil's pace and actually held the top production spot as recently as 2021 to 2022. Its output is forecast to jump more than seven million metric tons this season to 35.25 million metric tons, helped by more acreage devoted to cane. India also eats through more sugar than any other country, about 31 million metric tons a year, so exports are expected to hold steady as policymakers try to keep a lid on inflation at home.
China's Growing Gap Between Production and Consumption
China's harvest is expected to rise by 340,000 metric tons to 11.5 million metric tons, aided by good growing conditions. But China's economy, the world's second largest, is still working through a slowdown, and domestic sugar demand keeps climbing regardless. That leaves China, already a net importer, projected to consume 15.7 million metric tons against production of just 11.5 million metric tons in 2025 to 2026, a gap that import volumes will need to fill.
Thailand is still clawing back from a drought that crushed its 2020 to 2021 harvest. Production this season is expected to reach 10.25 million metric tons, a modest improvement, with about 7 million tons earmarked for export and domestic consumption expected to stay flat.
The United States and Its Dual Crop System
The U.S. ranks fifth globally among sugar producing nations, with total output projected at 8.42 million metric tons this season. Unlike most competitors, American growers split production between two crops: sugarcane accounts for about 45% of the national total, while sugar beets make up the remaining 55%. Corn adds another layer to the domestic sweetener market. U.S. producers made 6.3 million short tons of high fructose corn syrup in 2024, well below the levels above nine million tons seen back in the 2000s, as that syrup and other substitutes get used across beverages, dairy and processed foods.
Where the European Union Fits In
The 27 member states of the European Union do not count as a single producer in these rankings, but if they did, the bloc would rank third worldwide, trailing only Brazil and India. EU output is expected to fall to 15 million metric tons this season, a drop of 1.3 million metric tons, as sugar beet acreage shrinks in major producers such as France and Germany. Even with that decline, the EU still accounts for half of all beet sugar produced worldwide, concentrated in northern France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and Poland.
| Country/Bloc | 2025 to 2026 Production (metric tons) | Change from Prior Year |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 44.7 million | +4 million |
| India | 35.25 million | +7 million+ |
| European Union | 15 million | −1.3 million |
| China | 11.5 million | +340,000 |
| Thailand | 10.25 million | slight increase |
| United States | 8.42 million | not specified |
Which Countries Eat the Most Sugar
India leads global consumption at 31 million metric tons this season, followed by China at 15.7 million and the United States at 11 million. Those totals shift dramatically once population gets factored in. On a per person basis, Americans consume the most sugar in the world, averaging 126 grams a day, with Germany and the Netherlands close behind at 102 grams each.
Sucrose is the scientific name for the sugar found in both cane and beets, and it occurs naturally across the plant kingdom, though beets and cane contain it in the highest concentrations. Corn sugar, meanwhile, starts as cornstarch that gets converted first to glucose and then, through processing with an enzyme called sucrase, into high fructose corn syrup, a liquid sweetener that behaves differently from solid table sugar even though both trace back to plant carbohydrates.
