Strait of Hormuz Tanker Traffic Falls to Five Week Low

Crude tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz sank to its lowest point in five weeks after a fresh round of United States strikes on Iran and Tehran's retaliation against U.S. bases across the Gulf, rattling shipowners already on edge over the chokepoint's safety.

Strait of Hormuz Tanker Traffic Falls Sharply

Ship tracking firm Kpler counted just six tankers moving through the strait on Sunday, the day the U.S. carried out a third wave of strikes and Iran answered by hitting American bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and Jordan. Early Monday reports suggested no vessel was even attempting the passage, at least none visible on automatic identification systems. Among Sunday's six transits were a supertanker hauling Iranian crude, a tanker carrying oil products out of Kuwait, and three empty vessels heading into the Persian Gulf to load cargo. No LNG carrier crossed the strait over the weekend, according to Kpler data.

Tankers Go Dark Again

Shipowners are once more switching off transponders before entering the strait, a defensive tactic that had faded after the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding but is now back in force following last week's attacks on commercial vessels. Maritime intelligence firm Windward said its multi source analysis of the eastern approaches to the strait found eight dark vessels operating in the area on July 12, none transmitting AIS signals. Two of those vessels appeared to be conducting a ship to ship transfer off the coast of the UAE and Oman, while four more were tracked moving inbound and one sat stationary in the area for the first time.

What the Oil Market Is Pricing In

The United States Oil Fund (USO), which tracks crude prices, traded at 134.64 dollars, up a modest 0.07 percent on the day, and sits within a 52 week range of 102.42 to 142.33. An RSI reading of 61.18 points to buying interest that has cooled slightly from overbought territory but still leans firm, consistent with a market weighing real supply risk against the fact that oil, so far, keeps moving.

The Strait of Hormuz carries a substantial share of the world's seaborne oil and LNG, so any disruption, even a temporary thinning of traffic, tends to feed directly into freight rates, insurance costs and crude pricing. The return of dark shipping makes it harder for traders and analysts to verify how much oil is actually flowing, adding a layer of uncertainty on top of the physical risk from strikes and retaliation.

Why Vessel Operators Are Still Wary

The contrast with just weeks earlier is stark. Between the signing of the U.S. Iran memorandum and early last week, AIS equipped tankers and LNG carriers had been transiting in growing numbers, a sign operators felt reassured enough to sail in the open. That confidence evaporated fast once strikes resumed and Iran hit five Gulf countries in response, pushing crews back toward the anonymity of dark transits even as the physical count of ships willing to attempt the passage dropped to a five week low.

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