Holly Herrera
Crude oil prices ticked higher on Wednesday, with the United States Oil Fund (USO) trading at 127.61 dollars, up 1.34% on the day, as fresh data on russian crude exports pointed to tighter global supply. The move keeps USO within its 52 week range of 102.42 to 142.33, with the fund's relative strength index at 55.17, suggesting the rally has room before hitting overbought territory.
| Price | 127.61 USD |
|---|---|
| Day change | +1.69 (+1.34%) |
| 52-week range | 102.42 – 142.33 |
| RSI (14) | 55.17 |
| Volume | 8,424,407 |
The catalyst traces back to Moscow's export tallies. Vessel tracking data compiled by Bloomberg shows Russia shipped 3.71 million barrels per day of seaborne crude in the four weeks through August 9, the slowest pace since May. In the most recent week alone, shipments averaged just 3.25 million barrels per day, down sharply from 3.5 million the week before.
Why Russian Crude Exports Slowed
Two forces are pulling barrels away from tankers and back into domestic refineries. First, Russian refiners got a reprieve from Ukrainian strikes in the second half of July, letting them patch up damaged units and ramp processing higher. That meant more crude stayed onshore rather than heading to port. Second, industry sources say Russian crude and condensate output actually rose by about 100,000 barrels per day in July, topping 9 million barrels daily, a gain tied partly to that refinery recovery and firmer export activity earlier in the summer.
Ukraine, meanwhile, redirected some of its attacks toward Black Sea tankers and storage sites during that refinery lull, adding a new layer of disruption to the loading side of the equation.
Port Bottlenecks and Attacks
Novorossiysk, one of Russia's principal Black Sea export terminals, has been running at roughly half its peak crude loading capacity following tanker strikes near the port. Turkey briefly tightened restrictions on Black Sea shipping traffic as well. Up north, Baltic loadings at Ust Luga fell to about half the volume seen just two weeks earlier.
Ukraine struck five Russian refineries in the first week of August and hit two more this week, a pattern that could once again push crude out of domestic processing and back toward export terminals, even as those same terminals struggle with tanker shortages and constrained capacity.
Production and Inventory Picture
- Russian crude and condensate output: over 9 million barrels per day in July, up roughly 100,000 bpd from June
- Four week seaborne export average through August 9: 3.71 million barrels per day
- Latest weekly average: 3.25 million barrels per day, down from 3.5 million
- Year to date seaborne flows: 3.62 million barrels per day, about 280,000 bpd above last year's pace
- Crude held at sea: roughly 107 million barrels, falling as shipments slow while deliveries to India stay strong
The Dollar and Global Supply Backdrop
Beyond Russia, broader macro currents are shaping crude's trajectory. A softer dollar tends to make oil cheaper for holders of other currencies, supporting demand, while equity markets tracked by SPY and QQQ have offered a rough gauge of risk appetite that spills into commodity positioning. For now, though, the tightness in Black Sea and Baltic loading capacity, layered atop reduced Russian export volumes, is doing more to move crude prices than any single currency shift.
What Happens Next for Russian Oil Flows
Russia had already planned to boost August shipments from western ports using barrels freed up by refinery outages. The catch is finding room to move them. Tanker availability in the Black Sea remains tight, port capacity is stretched, and ongoing strikes keep complicating both loading and transit. Whether renewed refinery attacks push more crude back toward export terminals, or whether port constraints simply cap how much can leave, will shape the next few weeks of flows more than any single production number.
Frequently Asked Questions
How russia exports oil?
Russia moves crude primarily by tanker from Black Sea ports like Novorossiysk and Baltic terminals such as Ust Luga, using a fleet of vessels tracked by shipping data firms to reach buyers overseas.
Does russia exports oil?
Yes, Russia continues to export crude oil by sea, shipping an average of 3.71 million barrels per day in the four weeks through August 9, 2026.
Does russia export crude?
Russia exports both crude oil and refined products, with crude and condensate production exceeding 9 million barrels per day in July and a meaningful share routed to seaborne export markets.
Does russia import crude oil?
Russia is a net crude oil exporter and does not rely on significant crude imports, given its large domestic production base that supports both refining and export volumes.
Will russia stop oil exports?
There is no indication Russia plans to halt oil exports. Recent data shows shipments running about 280,000 barrels per day above last year's average even amid port disruptions and refinery attacks.
James Stephens
Edward Byrd