Hormuz tanker crossings hit lowest level since May as war risk rises

Crude oil rose as Hormuz tanker crossings fell to one on Thursday, the lowest count since May 7, sharpening concerns about Middle East supply. Crude was reported above $100 a barrel again. The United States Oil Fund, LP, a tracking proxy, stood at $145.66 on Sept. 30, up 1.61% for the day.

In Brief

• Only one tanker crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, down from three on Wednesday.
• The New Giant carried about 2 million barrels of Iraqi Basrah crude toward China.
• Houthi attacks are adding risk to alternative routes through the Red Sea.
• USO’s Sept. 30 price was $145.66, within its 52 week range of $113.86 to $163.35; its RSI was 50.91.

Why Hormuz tanker crossings matter to oil prices

The steep drop in vessel traffic points to a potential supply bottleneck, not a reported loss of production. Kpler vessel tracking showed three tankers making the crossing on Wednesday and just one on Thursday. No tanker entered the Persian Gulf that day.

The sole outbound vessel, the supertanker New Giant, left with about 2 million barrels of Basrah crude from Iraq. It was expected to arrive at China’s Rizhao port in the middle of August. The shipment shows oil is still moving through the strait, but the sparse traffic leaves fewer visible cargoes on that route.

Red Sea rerouting adds time and risk

Traffic through Bab el Mandeb remained relatively high despite Houthi attacks on vessels and threats to blockade Saudi Arabia’s main export outlet when Hormuz traffic is constrained. Some tankers, however, turned north toward the Suez Canal to avoid the Iran aligned group’s attacks.

That detour can stretch energy deliveries to Asia to three times the duration of a voyage through Bab el Mandeb. Saudi oil producer Aramco, which had shifted most shipments away from Hormuz through the strait, began offering crude loadings at Sidi Kerir, an Egyptian Mediterranean port. The new option keeps barrels moving, but longer journeys tie up ships and delay arrivals.

What the oil price data can and cannot show

Further escalation in the Persian Gulf, Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers and President Trump’s renewed threats toward Iran have put more supply at risk, according to ING commodity analysts. Those are clear geopolitical pressures on available oil. The supplied reporting gives no production loss, inventory total or demand measure, so it does not establish how much physical supply has been removed or how much buyers are drawing from stocks.

Nor does the supplied market data include a dollar reading, so it cannot show whether currency moves contributed to crude’s rise. USO’s price, range and RSI provide a market proxy, not a direct crude quote. The key uncertainty is whether safer routes can keep enough cargo moving as security risks mount.

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